The Macros
Challenges facing higher ed
The Cliff
- Projected to hit around 2025, is expected to result in a 15% decline in college-going students by 2029, primarily due to the sharp drop in birth rates following the 2008 financial crisis.
- This will mean a reduction of around 400,000 students over four years, averaging 100,000 fewer students per year. The impact will vary regionally, with some areas, like California, expected to see slight growth, while others, like Arkansas, may experience significant declines.
AID
The delay in FAFSA (Free Application for Federal Student Aid) processing has added to this challenge, disproportionately affecting low-income and first-generation students. FAFSA completions have dropped significantly, as students rely on in-person assistance to complete applications. Without access to this critical financial aid, many families are finding it even harder to afford college (EAB).
DROP OUTS
Projecting the Impact of increased high school dropouts and delayed college plans
Number of first-time enrollments at 2-year and 4-year institutions, 1990-20251
Estimated range of inputs informing outcome*:
- High school dropouts: 1.2M-2M
- Students delaying matriculation due to financial stress preference for in-person instruction: 5-40%
- Long-term decline in attendance due to decreased consumer confidence: 1-3x 2008 recession impact
*Range of possibilities is not a statistical model.
