Cliff Hanging
Navigating the demographic decline of 2025
Lindenwood University’s strategic plan to tackle the continuing decline in traditional student populations embraces what it calls “the new majority.” The segment includes adult students, students of color, military families and first-generation students. The students are average to above-average learners seeking accessible, quality higher education at an affordable price.
To support the new majority, the St. Charles, Missouri, private university has launched a 40-40-20 plan that strategically diversifies its academic portfolio. The plan focuses on achieving a population of 40% traditional students, 40% online students and 20% students that university enrollment administrators are meeting with on-demand options.
Peter Colombatto, Assistant VP for Marketing, Lindenwood University, says the goal is to directly address learner concerns about value, relevance, flexibility and affordability through the academic and campus experiences it offers both on campus and online. “While colleges and universities need to continue serving their traditional population, it is important for universities to ensure they are providing experiences, support and resources for non-traditional students.”
Colombatto says many higher education institutions fall into the trap of trying to manipulate systems, processes and policies that were designed for traditional students to serve the non-traditional learner. This results in a poor experience, which impacts enrollment, retention and brand affinity.
“Colleges and universities should develop the non-traditional online experience very intentionally with the consumer experience in mind every step of the way,” says Colombatto, who is responsible for developing and managing Lindenwood’s system-wide marketing strategies. “There are still many who reject the idea that a student is a customer. But when you embrace the idea of the student as a consumer, it is easier to understand the need to create a seamless, positive customer experience—for both traditional and non-traditional student types.”
The battle for student enrollment continues to be the focus of higher education administrators everywhere. For the last decade or so, decreased birth rates following the 2008 Great Recession have led to a severe decline in the number of traditional college-age students, with the numbers expected to sharpen in 2025 and beyond. According to the National Student Clearinghouse, enrollment has decreased by 9% since 2017. And if you think the numbers are just stats on a page, according to the National Center for Education Statistics, more than 500 colleges and universities have closed between 2015 and 2020.
“Colleges and universities should develop the nontraditional online experience very intentionally with the consumer experience in mind every step of the way.”
— Peter Colombatto, Assistant VP for Marketing, Lindenwood University
“This decline is going to have a negative impact on organizations that are not positioned to serve non-traditional learners, including working adults with no college experience or some college credits,” Colombatto says. “Organizations that have not been anticipating this shift and have already suffered from a decade of enrollment declines may struggle to recover.”
You gotta fight…
Claire Foster says that to adapt to the decline in traditional student populations, many colleges are proactively making changes to their operations, overheads and budgets. Some are even eliminating programs and positions to control expenses.
The downside is one that Foster, Executive VP for Enrollment Services at Regent University in Virginia Beach, Virginia, says she hopes universities understand—deep cuts can have detrimental effects on brand reputation. “University leaders must be judicious in determining what programs are highly aligned with the value proposition. Now is the time to lean into strengths and continuously promote programs that generate high demand and high ROI.”
To help keep their universities attractive and relevant, many colleges and universities are reimagining campus facilities, especially since today’s students expect and deserve safe and engaging campuses with state-of-the-art facilities. To note, Regent University was ranked the No. 1 safest college campus in Virginia in 2021 and the No. 1 best college dorms in Virginia in 2022. During this time, its freshmen enrollment on campus continues to increase. In addition, a recent U.S. News & World Report ranked Regent the No. 1 online bachelor’s degree program in Virginia for the 12th year in a row.
“University leaders must be judicious in determining what programs are highly aligned with the value proposition. Now is the time to lean into strengths and continuously promote programs that generate high demand and high ROI.”
— Claire Foster, Executive VP for Enrollment Services, Regent University
“Colleges that earn high marks for campus safety and cutting-edge facilities are prioritizing learning environments conducive to academic growth,” Foster says. “[But] colleges and universities [also] can effectively counteract enrollment declines by diversifying their student bodies. The demographic shift will affect traditional students, ages 18-24. And online learners are primarily non-traditional students, ages 25 and up. Market demand for high-quality online learning remains strong. By developing robust online programs, colleges and universities can appeal to a large market of online learners.”
One of the strategies higher education institutions are employing to help defy today’s shifting demographics is through technology. Now more than ever, colleges and universities must look at their entire digital experience at every stage of the customer journey for opportunities to optimize. This will help potential students find their programs easily.
Take AI, which can help marketing and enrollment teams identify student interest and target prospective students who demonstrate the highest propensity to convert. In addition, machine learning can predict trends related to demand, applications, admits and enrollments.
Once students are interested, RFI forms and applications need to be short, and easy to use and understand. Admissions teams need to prioritize speed to lead, ensuring they are the first to contact the potential student so they can articulate the value of the organization and move the student through the funnel. This requires a contact strategy that is rooted in an optimized CRM system while providing training for staff to leverage it.
“A strong and comprehensive data strategy is more important now than ever before,” Foster says.
By investing in the right technologies and aligning training to optimize them, organizations can use them to offset the impact of the demographic shift.
Looking ahead, college and university administrators can expect to see even more changes in the higher education landscape as a result of the demographic shift. The ones that can adapt and embrace the changing demographics will not only survive, but thrive. Those that cannot will suffer.
In addition, as colleges and universities compete for market share, students will have significantly more purchasing power. As a result, the cost of higher education is apt to decline or continue to decline when adjusted for inflation.
“While the last decade or so has been challenging, and additional disruption lies ahead, organizations that are proactive in their strategy and remain adaptable will be able to navigate changes in demographics and the higher education landscape in general with confidence,” Colombatto says.
The bottom line is that students need relevant, real-world training that prepares them for success. “We, as educators, have an opportunity to meet that need,” Foster says. “Colleges and universities must continuously innovate to provide high-quality, results-oriented education.”
As colleges face a sharp decline in traditional college-age students, today’s institutions must continue to strategize ways to adapt to this demographic shift. While educators and policymakers may seem challenged, the drive to find innovative solutions to sustain higher education in the face of changing demographics pushes on.
